Mexican democracy: of waves and tsunamis

Since 2008, every September 15 is celebrated the International Day of Democracy. The UN website states that democracy is one of the basic, universal and indivisible values ​​and principles of the United Nations. It is based on the will freely expressed by the people and is closely linked to the rule of law and the exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms.

“In Mexican democracy, no one wins or loses all power at the polls, and no one wins or loses it forever.” This lapidary phrase is from Dr. Lorenzo Córdova Vianello, it was said last June during the session in which the INE released the results of the constituency computations for the election of proportional representation (RP) deputies. His saying is unobjectionable, however, I take the license to offer a myopic look at the figures in which the behavior of the voters of June 6 in Mexico is translated.

In absolute terms, the only national political party that presented an increase in voters in the legislative elections of 2021 compared to 2018 was Movimiento Ciudadano. While all parties, large and small, lost votes at the polls, the orange wave added about a million additional votes for their cause, which represented a growth in voters of the order of 38.87 percent. The party did something well and something should say to its opponents and to the scrutinizers of politics about this behavior of the electorate. Everyone attentive!

I reiterate that the observation is shortsighted, because of course no one is aware that the party that obtained the greatest political gain from its electoral compromises is the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico. There were fewer voters than in 2018 that this 2021 marked the emblem of Verde on the ballots, but their alliance with Morena allowed them to go from the 5 deputies with a relative majority (MR) of 2018 to the 31 that it has in the LXV legislature. The de facto alliance that began three years ago when five green deputies joined the Morena bench, allowed the president’s party to secure an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies of the previous legislature, and the greens, something symbolic, to build a majority that he granted Senator Manuel Velasco leave to return to Chiapas to conclude his term as the first governor to emerge from their ranks. Given what they achieved in 2021, it was not only very cheap, it was a great deal. Green always wins.

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It is expected that it will be this Tuesday, September 14, when the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judicial Power, ratifies the triumph of Layda Sansores in Campeche, with which, of the 15 governorships that were in dispute in 2021, there will be 11 victories obtained by Morena’s candidates, against two for the PAN and its allies (Chihuahua and Querétaro), one for the Citizen Movement (Nuevo León) and one for the PVEM-PT (San Luis Potosí). The Balance of Morena throws happy numbers, it will go from governing 6 entities in 2018 to governing 17 in 2021 and those that accumulate by 2022, the year in which the ownership of executive power will be renewed in 6 states.

On September 30, the Local Councils of the Local Public Organizations (OPL) of Aguascalientes, Durango, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas, Hidalgo and Oaxaca will be installed. Morena has everything to gain, since the first four entities are currently governed by the PAN and the last two by the PRI. Surveys from the specialized site Campaign and Elections anticipate that the PAN would retain ownership in Durango and Aguascalientes while Morena would win the other four entities, where he has already won the majority in Congress and heads the most important mayoralties.

The cycle will be completed in 2023 when the governorships are renewed in the two bastions that remain from the PRI: Coahuila and the State of Mexico. From the outset, the outlook looks encouraging for the tricolor in these entities: they are the majority in the local congresses and govern a good part of the municipalities.

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Hard electoral defeat that Kirchnerismo had on September 12 in the primary elections in which the Argentines chose the candidates who will have the right to stand in the general elections next November. According to preliminary figures, the pre-candidates of the ruling Frente de Todos lost in 18 of the 24 districts in the country. This electoral mechanism approved in 2009 and put into practice since 2011 is known by its acronym as STEP: Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory. Primary, because instead of defining a winner of the positions, the people of each political group who will be candidates to run in the general elections are defined. Open, because all citizens participate in the election of candidates, whether or not they are members of the party for which they vote. Simultaneous, because on the same voting day the candidatures of all the positions that will be in contention in the general elections are settled. Mandatory, because participation is required by law for all citizens between 18 and 70 years old, although it is voluntary for young people between 16 and 18 and people over 70. It must be said that the fine is almost symbolic, who does not vote in The primaries are obliged to pay 50 Argentine pesos (about 10 Mexican pesos), while the fine for not voting in the general elections is 500 Argentine pesos (100 Mexican pesos). It should be said that fifty Argentine pesos are enough to buy a hamburger, in Mexico, no joke.

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