AMLO, colapso evitable

To solve a problem the first step is to recognize that we have it, if we believe that “everything is going well” the problem grows.

President López Obrador received a troubled economy and the covid that damages the economy began. To these two evils is added another, the wrong decisions of the self-called 4T, which instead of reducing inherited problems and correctly managing the pandemic, aggravated them.

He was failed by collaborators who became servants who only tell him “what you say sir” and several of his advisers who sought their own benefits, not helping him solve problems. The violation of stability and legal certainty created negative expectations, which held back investment and growth since his first year of government, 2019, before the arrival of the covid.

The economy of Mexico, if the neosocialist government of López Obrador continues along the same path that it traveled in the middle of his term, it will be, like the title of a García Márquez novel, the “Chronicle of a Death Foretold.”

In 2020, the economy of Mexico, according to World Bank data, fell by -8.2%, more than double the world average (3.6%) and higher than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean (-6.2%). The fall of the Mexican economy was also more than double that of its main trading partner, the US, -3.5%. In 2020 despite the covid, China increased GDP by 2.3% and Ireland, due to its low taxes, from 12.5% ​​to companies, by 3.4% (World Bank).

In 2021 there is a small rebound in investment to the first semester, 2.6%, compared to the first semester of 2020, which is positive, but from July to August the Gross Fixed Investment fell by 1.8% (Inegi) and the production and sale of cars by more than 13%.

The wrong decisions of the government in Q4: cancellation of Texcoco, of a beer company in Mexicali, of the fast train in Coahuila, via popular consultations, created uncertainty among investors, as did the high expenses in the construction of a refinery in Dos Bocas, the Mayan Train and in the growing losses and debts in Pemex and CFE.

Yes, there is a way out, if AMLO recognizes his mistakes and is willing to rectify them. In the book How to avoid economic collapse, recommendations for AMLO, distributed by Amazon, I show you the changes that you must implement to avoid a collapse of the economy in the next three years of government.

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